Abstract:
Fossil motor fuels around 2050
Kjell Aleklett, Professor, Uppsala University
To be able to travel where one will, when one will is a wonderful, democratic freedom and right. For many, independence of public transport routes and timetables by ownership of a car is an even greater freedom. We can imagine many forms that this freedom may take in the future but we know that every transport solution will require energy provided by some form of fuel. Today, oil is the raw material for the fuel for aircraft, passenger cars, busses, trucks, ships etc. For the last 40 years the oil requirements of our transportation modes have increased. During the coming 40 years the amount of fossil fuels for transport must be decreased. The political will for this will be tested in Copenhagen later this year.
Fossil fuels are finite resources. In various regions of the world we see that production reached a maximum and then declined. The classic examples are oil production in the USA, natural gas production in the United Kingdom and coal production in Japan. Every year we consume 31 billion barrels of oil. If we compare this with BP’s estimate of the world’s reserves of 1240 billion barrels this is equivalent to constant consumption at today’s level for 40 years, i.e. until 2050. A constant level of global oil production is not realistic and, instead, we can expect a future maximum of production, Peak Oil, followed by declining production. Can nature’s finite resources help the politicians in Copenhagen?
Production of fossil fuels is limited by physical and economic factors. We see that the fraction of the reserves that can be extracted annually is limited. When examining coal we see that, historically, mining has never consumed more than 4% of reserves in one year. Can an increase in coal use for conversion to liquid fuel combined with CCS be a future alternative for powering vehicle transport or should we turn to greater use of natural gas?
In 500BC Confucius said, “Study the past if you would define the future”. Using our knowledge of the history of fossil fuel discovery and production we can estimate fossil fuel production for vehicles 40 years into the future – until 2050.